South China Sea NewsWire
The monthly roundup of what matters
Commentary
Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles, Japanese Minister of Defense Nakatani Gen, and United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III convened the fourteenth Trilateral Defense Ministers’ Meeting (TDMM) on 17 November 2024 in Darwin, Australia. This is their joint statement.
Analysis
In a move that has sent ripples through the South China Sea, the Philippines has enacted two new laws aimed at clarifying maritime routes. Officials insist these measures are not about expanding territory, but observers warn that foreign vessels may soon face “stresses” as they adapt to Manila’s newly defined sea lanes.
Analysis
Disinformation and fake news are the Philippines’ “most pressing challenge” now in fortifying its claim in the South China Sea, military and coastguard officials say, while touting gains achieved through their assertive transparency initiatives to counter foreign narratives.
Commentary
Remarks at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea | U.S. Ambassador MaryKay Carlson
As part of the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson delivered opening remarks on the South China Sea and its issues.
Analysis
As vote counting commences in the United States election with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appearing to be leading his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, the tight race has kept the Philippines on edge. Observers say while the election outcome is not expected to derail relations between Washington and its long-time ally, the Philippines should prepare for how it can work with the next US administration.
Analysis
China is testing Prabowo Subianto’s new administration, with three successive incursions by China Coast Guard vessels into Indonesia’s exclusive maritime jurisdiction—the first occurring on the new president’s inaugural day in office. Jakarta urgently needs to recalibrate its South China Sea diplomacy and to revisit its basic assumptions about China. China’s move south should also be a wake-up call to Canberra that its pursuit of supposed bilateral ‘stabilization’ with Beijing is irrelevant to China’s strategic intentions.
Analysis
Possible Solutions for Overlapping Maritime Claims | Vietnam.Vn
Professor Clive Schofield argues that in recent decades, maritime jurisdictional claims have expanded significantly. These expansive claims are constrained by the framework of maritime jurisdictions set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, due to the proximity of coastal states, the number of overlapping maritime claims has increased rapidly, many of which remain unresolved.
Analysis
What does China really want in the SCS? | Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy
SCSNW Senior Researcher Benjamin Blandin explains China’s lack of historical legitimacy in SCS claims and motives behind its actions. Beyond resource interests and regional influence, China’s move in SCS aims to rally population and divert attention from domestic issues.
Special Report
The House Committee on Homeland Security and the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party have released a report analyzing the influence of Chinese companies and operations in the U.S. maritime industry and ports throughout the United States. The report also provides an analysis of other ship to shore crane makers and offers suggestions for the United States to mitigate these strategic risks.
Commentary
South China Sea: The “transparency initiative” success is plain to see | The Interpreter
Richard Heydarian takes a look at the “transparency initiative” of the Philippines and counters arguments that it has failed to deter China in the South China Sea. He instead argues that the “transparency initiative” has strengthened national resolve in opposing concessions and reinforced military ties and alliances with Japan and the United States.
Commentary
Author Laura Zhou considers the prospects of China towing a Philippines Coast Guard ship away from the disputed South China Sea hotspot and the risks that such an approach has in drawing in the United States.
Analysis
Rejecting Xi’s bullying at the Second Thomas Shoal | Pacific Forum
Professor Michael Tkacik examines the extent and shortcomings of the July 2024 provisional agreement established by China and the Philippines and how China’s subsequent interpretation is meant to weaken Philippine sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal by claiming authority it has no right to. Professor Tkacik then considers potential avenues the Philippines and the United States can push back against China’s unlawful interpretation.
Analysis
Author Don Mclain Gill explores ongoing efforts by Vietnam and the Philippines to strengthen their bilateral security ties, especially within the context of South China Sea territorial disputes. He also discusses how these confidence-building measures and increased ties might impact disputes between the two countries and China more broadly.
Analysis
Mobilize Land Power to Contain China’s Maritime Ambitions | U.S. Naval Institute
General Charles Flynn and Lieutenant Colonel Timothy Devine explore lessons the U.S. Army has learned from its past counter-insurgency efforts and by working with regional partners that could be useful in countering China’s regional ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, especially against Chinese gray-zone tactics.
Commentary
Vietnam’s anti-IUU fishing efforts: Insights from Global Efforts | Vietnam+
James Borton, Editor-in-Chief at the South China Sea NewsWire highlighted Vietnam’s commitment to strengthening its legal framework and improving traceability in seafood trade to combat IUU fishing. He noted that while significant steps have been taken, further improvements are needed in enforcing regulations and updating fishing vessel databases. Borton suggested that Vietnam could lead ASEAN efforts in supporting regional cooperation, workshops, and strategic plans on the fisheries sector. He also underscored the collective efforts in anti-IUU fishing across all fishing sectors.
Analysis
Deterrence and Dialogue to Avert a Maritime Crisis | China-US Focus
South China Sea NewsWire Advisory Board member Lucio Blanco Pitlo III takes a look at the National Security Policy 2023-2028 issued by the Government of the Philippines and how Manila aims to balance deterrence and dialogue to assert its sovereignty and security while also avoiding a maritime conflict.
Commentary
Could the United States and China really go to war? Who would win? | Brookings
Michael E. O’Hanlon of Brookings examines the concept of war between the United States and China, the magnitude that such a conflict might reach, and potential scenarios that might inform how the war starts and ends. O’Hanlon also considers the challenges for China and the United States in each scenario and how each party could help avoid war in the first place.
Analysis
China first introduced legislation in 2016 to regulate deep-sea resource exploration, laying the foundation for its survey and research initiatives in what could be viewed as new power growth and technological advancement. In their latest national security legislation, China currently sees the South China Sea and the Pacific as strategic locations to demonstrate its newest technology for planned deep-sea bed mining.
Analysis
High hurdles for achieving squad goals in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
Author Prisie Patnayak questions the utility of the Squad, the new grouping of the United States, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, in effectively deterring Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Although the Squad has greater deterrence potential than the existing Quad, ongoing challenges in ASEAN and member commitments ensure that the Squad’s future remains cloudy.
Commentary
Beijing can Take the South China Sea Without Firing a Shot | The New York Times
Author Oriana Skylar Mastro takes a look at the current state of militarization in the South China Sea and opines that China has used brinksmanship and non-military assets to build a significant military force in the region. Mastro argues that the United States confront China and that a harder line by the United States in support of the Philippines will be sufficient to reduce the overall level of tension. If the United States fails to do this, Chinese strength and regional belligerence will grow so powerful that Beijing no longer fears war.
Commentary
Why South China Sea is the flashpoint that could spark war | Australian Financial Review
Author Bec Strating considers how tensions in the South China Sea might be more likely to cause an international conflict compared to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Commentary
SCSNW Editor-in-Chief James Borton takes another look at deep-sea mining, the benefits and challenges of the industry, and where the United States currently stands with regards to permitting and leading in this field. Borton then considers how the U.S. can further develop this sector even though it is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the International Seabed Authority.
Analysis
Author Tappy Lung at CSIS confronts the issue of Sinophobia in the Philippines and how this social issue can undermine both the desire of the Philippines to defend its sovereignty and isolate territorial disputes from its broader relations with China. Lung then goes on to discuss potential steps the Philippines can take to combat Sinophobia moving forward.
Commentary
The South China Sea Dog That Hasn’t Barked…Yet | War on the Rocks
Authors Zack Cooper and Gregory Poling discuss Vietnam’s recent expansion of several features in the South China Sea. The authors then consider the opposite case of the Philippines and the reasons why Vietnam may have escaped China’s wrath despite Hanoi’s expansion in the South China Sea, including Vietnam’s higher escalation threshold, Hanoi’s independence between China and the United States, and the regime similarities between China and Vietnam.
Analysis
China has stepped up its aggression against the Philippines in the contested waters of the South China Sea, calling into question the strength of American deterrence, according to policy analysts.
Analysis
Hanoi in High Gear: Vietnam’s Spratly Expansion Accelerates | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
This report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative analyzes the significant expansion of features in the South China Sea by the Vietnamese government in 2024. According to AMTI, Vietnam has created 692 new acres of land across a total of 10 features and expanded its construction efforts at several bases.
Analysis
China’s South Sea Aggression Is Backfiring | Foreign Policy
This article considers the methods China has used to confront the Philippines and other state actors in the South China Sea and how China’s repeated efforts to deny access may end up being counterproductive. On the other hand, author Keith Johnson considers whether Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are pressured to the same extent as the Philippines and how all four nations are increasing activities and cooperation in the South China Sea, potentially causing significant blowback to China’s regional aims.
Analysis
This article considers the trade relationship between China and the Philippines and how China could exert significant influence over Philippines policy due to the great trade imbalance in China’s favor.
Commentary
In this piece, author John F. Bradford explores the international and national efforts taken by Southeast Asian states to secure Indo-Pacific sea lanes from piracy before considering new threats that threaten international trade, how they may grow in intensity, and what further steps regional states can take to mitigate these challenges.
Analysis
Taiwan’s indigenous solutions for national defence | East Asia Forum
In this piece, SCSNW Research Associate Caleb Mills and Joshua Bowes explore Taiwan’s efforts to support indigenous weapons development and production amidst a shift towards a more asymmetric defense strategy against a potential Chinese invasion. The authors then consider the impacts of Taiwan’s efforts to defend against China, especially what growing militarization and readiness might do to the nation’s vibrant democratic life.
Analysis
A Chinese report stating that Vietnam had reclaimed land in the South China Sea has sparked concerns over another “battlefield” in the disputed waterway in what analysts say could be Beijing’s attempt to divert attention from its ongoing territorial row with the Philippines while limiting Hanoi’s actions.
Analysis
Nobody Likes a Bully: China’s Grip Over the South China Sea is Slipping | 9DASHLINE
Author Jonathan Dorsey argues that China’s aggressive tactics to support its territorial claims in the South China Sea are beginning to tire out rival claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam. These nations, and other regional states such as Indonesia and Malaysia, are increasingly developing ways to improve their maritime capabilities and cooperation to make them less susceptible to China’s regional operations.
Analysis
In this article, author Louis McDonough Monroy explores the two concepts of occupation and maritime rights within international law. Monroy then goes on to determine if states can occupy maritime zones and, if so, what responsibilities occupying states can or must fulfil through any maritime occupation.
Commentary
Countering China Starts with the Philippines | Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs
Major David Geaney argues that the United States should deploy U.S. Navy and Coast Guard personnel and assets to non-violently confront Chinese vessels in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. The United States must do so, Geaney argues, to demonstrate its commitment to its allies in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysis
Sam Beltran, a journalist for the South China Morning Post, examines the recent growth of countries expanding ties with the Philippines. She suggests that Manila has been able to expand its ties with other states like France, Australia, India, and Japan by signaling that it is willing to work with anyone to bolster its strategic advantage and modernize its military.
Commentary
Move over, Quad; the new Squad has landed | Asia Times
In this article author Richard Javad Heydarian takes a look at the “Squad”, a new defense-oriented grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, and considers if the Squad will provide better regional strategic coherence and operability compared to the previous “Quad” of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India.
Analysis
Author Jeffrey W. Jaeger considers Chinese use of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (“PAFMM”), whether such forces constitute official naval auxiliaries, and what responsive policies to take if the PAFMM are considered to take orders from Chinese authorities or are independent actors.
Analysis
With Chinese warships anchoring in Cambodia, the US needs to respond | Defense News
The recent mooring of Chinese warships at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base marked the unofficial inauguration of China’s first overseas naval post in the Indo-Pacific region and only its second overall. These latest deployments, which demand a robust American government response, signal how China plans to leverage its expanding global military footprint to thwart U.S. forces from intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Commentary
Philippines in the South China Sea: Best Practice or Cautionary Tale? | China US Focus
SCSNW Advisory Board Member Lucio Blanco Pitlo III provides insight on the state of play in the South China Sea and what littoral states are doing to manage tensions and increase their offshore capabilities. He further considers the experience of the Philippines by examining Manila’s transparency campaign against Chinese encroachment and closer military ties with the United States is worth the diminished economic investment and tourism from China.
Analysis
Navigating China’s Influence: Insights from the State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey | Fulcrum
Author Joanne Lin reviews the results of the 2024 State of Southeast Asia survey in this article. The survey results show that China has made significant progress in building its influence, which can be seen in the survey’s first ever finding of China as the preferred regional alignment choice over the United States, yet also show that China has work to build perceptions that China will do the right thing in regional affairs.
Analysis
In this article, Benjamin Blandin and Stephen Nagy explore the history and recent actions by various claimants in the South China Sea, such as China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia as well as extraterritorial parties like the United States, South Korea, and Japan. The increase in geopolitical competition in the region, the authors argue, makes it even more important for the parties to minimize confrontation and avoid conflict.
Commentary
A partnership in hyperdrive | The Inquirer
In his recent diplomatic trip to Manila, US Secretary of State Anothony Blinken used the term, “hyperdrive” to describe his country’s relationship with the Phillipines. Columnist Dindo Manhit, writing for the Inquirer, explores the historic depths of this alliance within the context of tensions in the South China Sea.
Analysis
Does Vietnam-Philippines Maritime Cooperation Offer a Template for the Region? | The Diplomat
Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin looks at the history of Philippines-Vietnam relations in the South China Sea. By exploring shared frustrations with ASEAN in establishing a regional code of conduct, joint losses of territory to China, and various cooperative measures, Blandin considers the likelihood of a Hanoi-Manila partnership and its regional implications.
Commentary
James Borton, Editor-in-Chief of the South China Sea NewsWire, dives deep into the study of deepsea mining and its practicalities for the ongoing clean energy transition. He then discusses how the opposition to the study and responsible deployment of this practice is steeped in inaccurate information and overblown fears.
Analysis
In this article, Elina Noor discusses the importance of undersea cables to Southeast Asian countries and how those states have neglected to increase cable security and governance. She then offers policy suggestions to improve regional governance and stakeholder coordination.
Analysis
Dr. Pooja Bhatt and Dr. Brendon J. Cannon explore the importance and securitization of undersea telecommunications cables in this policy brief. They first explain what undersea cables do and why adversarial actors may want to destroy them. The authors then examine potential actionable, rather than aspirational, policy options that the Quad can take to ensure submarine cable safety.
Commentary
ASEAN should be open but wary of the Quad | ISIS
In this article by SCSNW Advisory Board member Lucio Pitlo, the Quad offers several tangible benefits that ASEAN members can utilize, such as an external balance to China’s power and outside thinking on Southeast Asia’s security. However, while the Quad has benefits, it also brings risks, such as potentially breaking ASEAN up along great power fault lines.
Analysis
China’s ‘blue dragon’ strategy in the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist
China is advancing its ‘blue dragon’ strategy to compete with the US and undermine President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific policy. The plan targets three bodies of water in the Indo-Pacific region and major river systems in Southeast and South Asia. Despite Washington’s public denial of a containment policy against China, the US continues its global spy operations and has increased its defensive military posture in the Indo-Pacific.
Commentary
South China Sea: A Formula for the Philippines | The Lowy Institute
Shortly before handing over the chairmanship of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to Laos, Indonesia corralled regional states for an unprecedented move. For the first time in recent memory, the regional body issued a stand-alone statement on the dangerous escalation of maritime spats between the Philippines, a founding ASEAN member, and China, a major economic partner.
Commentary
Scientific collaboration could ease tensions in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
South China Sea NewsWire’s Managing Editor David Hessen reviews a survey of South China Sea experts and academics that evaluates methods of regional conflict de-escalation. Hessen then considers if bilateral scientific diplomacy might be the key or reducing tension and improving regional environmental health.
Commentary
Vietnam Eyes Lifting of the EU ‘Yellow Card’ | Geopolitical Monitor
There are few indicators that the South China Sea’s seafood rivalry will slow down. Fishermen and the region face a looming fishery crisis due to illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing, overfishing, marine pollution, warming seas and the securitization of fisheries. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a serious global problem that threatens ocean ecosystems and sustainable fisheries. That’s why the European Union (EU) officials continue to monitor Vietnamese fishermen after they received a “yellow card” in 2017.
Analysis
China’s illegal fishing fleet at Iroquois Reef in the West Philippine Sea | SeaLight
Satellite images of China’s illegal fishing fleet at Iroquois Reef, deep within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Approximately 35 vessels are visible. The Armed Forces of the Philippines recently released evidence that destructive Chinese fishing practices were destroying this reef.
Commentary
What one more dash in the South China Sea tells us about China’s game | Channel News Asia
South China Sea NewsWire’s contributing researcher Collin Koh evaluates China’s decision to add another dash to its well-known “Nine Dash Line” and the implications for Chinese strategy and regional responses.
Commentary
The Case for Joint Patrols in the South China Sea | Geopolitical Monitor
Philippines-China relations are deteriorating with every passing month, and the October 22 collisions attest to that. The incidents can either be viewed as proof that the Philippines urgently needs diplomacy with China or, perhaps, to begin employing “diplomacy by other means.” Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has lost all hope in the former option, saying that Beijing’s diplomatic outreach to Manila is “all for a show”; instead, he favors consulting with allies and partners to conduct multilateral joint patrols in the West Philippine Sea with the hope of altering Chinese behavior.
Analysis
The Blue Security Program engages with and facilitates high quality research on issues of critical maritime security across the Indo-Pacific. Bringing together leading regional experts in politics, international law and strategic studies, Blue Security focuses on three key pillars of maritime security: order, law and power.
Analysis
Asia-Pacific nations worry as Biden-Xi talk set for APEC | The Washington TImes
South China Sea NewsWire’s own James Borton tackles the challenges that Asia-Pacific nations face as U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in San Fransisco for APEC. Borton also considers the risks, and opportunities, that stand before the U.S. President going into this conversation.
Commentary
Speak its name: Blockade | SeaLight
A country that carries out an illegal, aggressive, unilateral blockade against a smaller country’s outpost–within that country’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zone–deserves to be treated as an outlaw and a pariah on the international stage. That starts with calling it by its name.
Commentary
The U.S. Can Still Avoid War with China over Taiwan | The New York Times
AEI Nonresident Senior Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro’s article discusses the deterioration of relations between China and the United States over the future of Taiwan, the provocations each side has taken in the last few years, and the potential steps the United States can take to avoid the dispute turning into a devastating conflict.
Analysis
The South China Sea talks between ASEAN and China | IISS
The slow-moving South China Sea Code of Conduct process has worked to China’s benefit, particularly as Southeast Asian states have made little progress on resolving important underlying disputes over maritime boundaries.
Commentary
Storm in a Shoal: Philippines and China spar again in the South China Sea | TCSS
Given the deteriorating state of BRP Sierra Madre, the current situation is unsustainable and a new path must soon be forged. President Marcos faces challenging times as he will need to navigate between both Chinese aggression and a vocal domestic cohort that is looking for him to assert Philippine territorial integrity.
Analysis
In Cambodia, a military base as a tool of influence for Beijing | The Conversation
In this featured article, Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin analyzes China’s military base in Ream, Cambodia, how this base came to be, and its strategic implications for China’s South China Sea naval policies. In addition, Blandin explores Cambodia’s perspective in its close relationship with China yet its ability to build ties with other powers.
Analysis
Ease Tensions in the South China Sea by Adopting Cooperative Mechanisms | RANE & SCSNW
The recent altercation in the South China Sea between Chinese vessels and Philippine ships underscores the urgent need for science diplomacy and competition in fisheries management to bring clam to the tense waters, Rodger Baker of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE and James Borton of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins argue.
Commentary
US-Vietnam Relations: From Bitter Enemies to Strategic Partners | Geopolitical Monitor
Vietnam and the United States have finally arrived at a new higher level of bilateral relationship after a protracted and difficult journey through a complicated history of conflict and cooperation. In order to strengthen strategic interests for peace, stability, and prosperity for both sides, and promote a rules-based international order, President Joe Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong reached a historic accord to upgrade the bilateral relationship between the two countries in a two-day visit by President Biden to Hanoi on September 10-11.
Analysis
Artificial islands: Beijing’s risky strategy in the South China Sea | The Conversation
In this featured article, Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin analyzes China’s buildup of islands and military assets in the South China Sea. He explores the size and facilities of Chinese-held South China Sea islands, their usefulness to the PLA and Beijing’s overall policy objectives in the region, and their inherent risks to China’s power projection in the event of a full-on conflict.
Analysis
A RAND Research Primer “The Political Geography of the South China Sea Disputes” | Rand
The South China Sea disputes are multifaceted and have significant geopolitical implications. The complex nature of these disputes requires careful analysis and understanding of the political geography, historical context, and legal aspects involved.
Commentary
Where Is Vietnam on the Sino-U.S. Spectrum? | CSIS
Vietnam, like other Southeast Asian countries, does not want to align with either side in the growing competition between China and the United States but instead navigate between the two powers to pursue its own interests. The author argues that Vietnam remains closer to China and will move slowly in building stronger ties with the United States.
Our monthly news aggregator identifies the central articles on news and regional developments. Our team of editors offer concise summaries for easy access to articles, conferences, podcasts, videos and integrated media.
