South China Sea NewsWire
The monthly roundup of what matters
Analysis
Nobody Likes a Bully: China’s Grip Over the South China Sea is Slipping | 9DASHLINE
Author Jonathan Dorsey argues that China’s aggressive tactics to support its territorial claims in the South China Sea are beginning to tire out rival claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam. These nations, and other regional states such as Indonesia and Malaysia, are increasingly developing ways to improve their maritime capabilities and cooperation to make them less susceptible to China’s regional operations.
Analysis
In this article, author Louis McDonough Monroy explores the two concepts of occupation and maritime rights within international law. Monroy then goes on to determine if states can occupy maritime zones and, if so, what responsibilities occupying states can or must fulfil through any maritime occupation.
Commentary
Countering China Starts with the Philippines | Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs
Major David Geaney argues that the United States should deploy U.S. Navy and Coast Guard personnel and assets to non-violently confront Chinese vessels in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. The United States must do so, Geaney argues, to demonstrate its commitment to its allies in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysis
Sam Beltran, a journalist for the South China Morning Post, examines the recent growth of countries expanding ties with the Philippines. She suggests that Manila has been able to expand its ties with other states like France, Australia, India, and Japan by signaling that it is willing to work with anyone to bolster its strategic advantage and modernize its military.
Commentary
Move over, Quad; the new Squad has landed | Asia Times
In this article author Richard Javad Heydarian takes a look at the “Squad”, a new defense-oriented grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, and considers if the Squad will provide better regional strategic coherence and operability compared to the previous “Quad” of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India.
Analysis
Author Jeffrey W. Jaeger considers Chinese use of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (“PAFMM”), whether such forces constitute official naval auxiliaries, and what responsive policies to take if the PAFMM are considered to take orders from Chinese authorities or are independent actors.
Analysis
With Chinese warships anchoring in Cambodia, the US needs to respond | Defense News
The recent mooring of Chinese warships at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base marked the unofficial inauguration of China’s first overseas naval post in the Indo-Pacific region and only its second overall. These latest deployments, which demand a robust American government response, signal how China plans to leverage its expanding global military footprint to thwart U.S. forces from intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Commentary
Philippines in the South China Sea: Best Practice or Cautionary Tale? | China US Focus
SCSNW Advisory Board Member Lucio Blanco Pitlo III provides insight on the state of play in the South China Sea and what littoral states are doing to manage tensions and increase their offshore capabilities. He further considers the experience of the Philippines by examining Manila’s transparency campaign against Chinese encroachment and closer military ties with the United States is worth the diminished economic investment and tourism from China.
Analysis
Navigating China’s Influence: Insights from the State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey | Fulcrum
Author Joanne Lin reviews the results of the 2024 State of Southeast Asia survey in this article. The survey results show that China has made significant progress in building its influence, which can be seen in the survey’s first ever finding of China as the preferred regional alignment choice over the United States, yet also show that China has work to build perceptions that China will do the right thing in regional affairs.
Analysis
In this article, Benjamin Blandin and Stephen Nagy explore the history and recent actions by various claimants in the South China Sea, such as China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia as well as extraterritorial parties like the United States, South Korea, and Japan. The increase in geopolitical competition in the region, the authors argue, makes it even more important for the parties to minimize confrontation and avoid conflict.
Commentary
A partnership in hyperdrive | The Inquirer
In his recent diplomatic trip to Manila, US Secretary of State Anothony Blinken used the term, “hyperdrive” to describe his country’s relationship with the Phillipines. Columnist Dindo Manhit, writing for the Inquirer, explores the historic depths of this alliance within the context of tensions in the South China Sea.
Analysis
Does Vietnam-Philippines Maritime Cooperation Offer a Template for the Region? | The Diplomat
Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin looks at the history of Philippines-Vietnam relations in the South China Sea. By exploring shared frustrations with ASEAN in establishing a regional code of conduct, joint losses of territory to China, and various cooperative measures, Blandin considers the likelihood of a Hanoi-Manila partnership and its regional implications.
Commentary
James Borton, Editor-in-Chief of the South China Sea NewsWire, dives deep into the study of deepsea mining and its practicalities for the ongoing clean energy transition. He then discusses how the opposition to the study and responsible deployment of this practice is steeped in inaccurate information and overblown fears.
Analysis
In this article, Elina Noor discusses the importance of undersea cables to Southeast Asian countries and how those states have neglected to increase cable security and governance. She then offers policy suggestions to improve regional governance and stakeholder coordination.
Analysis
Dr. Pooja Bhatt and Dr. Brendon J. Cannon explore the importance and securitization of undersea telecommunications cables in this policy brief. They first explain what undersea cables do and why adversarial actors may want to destroy them. The authors then examine potential actionable, rather than aspirational, policy options that the Quad can take to ensure submarine cable safety.
Commentary
ASEAN should be open but wary of the Quad | ISIS
In this article by SCSNW Advisory Board member Lucio Pitlo, the Quad offers several tangible benefits that ASEAN members can utilize, such as an external balance to China’s power and outside thinking on Southeast Asia’s security. However, while the Quad has benefits, it also brings risks, such as potentially breaking ASEAN up along great power fault lines.
Analysis
China’s ‘blue dragon’ strategy in the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist
China is advancing its ‘blue dragon’ strategy to compete with the US and undermine President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific policy. The plan targets three bodies of water in the Indo-Pacific region and major river systems in Southeast and South Asia. Despite Washington’s public denial of a containment policy against China, the US continues its global spy operations and has increased its defensive military posture in the Indo-Pacific.
Commentary
South China Sea: A Formula for the Philippines | The Lowy Institute
Shortly before handing over the chairmanship of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to Laos, Indonesia corralled regional states for an unprecedented move. For the first time in recent memory, the regional body issued a stand-alone statement on the dangerous escalation of maritime spats between the Philippines, a founding ASEAN member, and China, a major economic partner.
Commentary
Scientific collaboration could ease tensions in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
South China Sea NewsWire’s Managing Editor David Hessen reviews a survey of South China Sea experts and academics that evaluates methods of regional conflict de-escalation. Hessen then considers if bilateral scientific diplomacy might be the key or reducing tension and improving regional environmental health.
Commentary
Vietnam Eyes Lifting of the EU ‘Yellow Card’ | Geopolitical Monitor
There are few indicators that the South China Sea’s seafood rivalry will slow down. Fishermen and the region face a looming fishery crisis due to illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing, overfishing, marine pollution, warming seas and the securitization of fisheries. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a serious global problem that threatens ocean ecosystems and sustainable fisheries. That’s why the European Union (EU) officials continue to monitor Vietnamese fishermen after they received a “yellow card” in 2017.
Analysis
China’s illegal fishing fleet at Iroquois Reef in the West Philippine Sea | SeaLight
Satellite images of China’s illegal fishing fleet at Iroquois Reef, deep within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Approximately 35 vessels are visible. The Armed Forces of the Philippines recently released evidence that destructive Chinese fishing practices were destroying this reef.
Commentary
What one more dash in the South China Sea tells us about China’s game | Channel News Asia
South China Sea NewsWire’s contributing researcher Collin Koh evaluates China’s decision to add another dash to its well-known “Nine Dash Line” and the implications for Chinese strategy and regional responses.
Commentary
The Case for Joint Patrols in the South China Sea | Geopolitical Monitor
Philippines-China relations are deteriorating with every passing month, and the October 22 collisions attest to that. The incidents can either be viewed as proof that the Philippines urgently needs diplomacy with China or, perhaps, to begin employing “diplomacy by other means.” Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has lost all hope in the former option, saying that Beijing’s diplomatic outreach to Manila is “all for a show”; instead, he favors consulting with allies and partners to conduct multilateral joint patrols in the West Philippine Sea with the hope of altering Chinese behavior.
Analysis
The Blue Security Program engages with and facilitates high quality research on issues of critical maritime security across the Indo-Pacific. Bringing together leading regional experts in politics, international law and strategic studies, Blue Security focuses on three key pillars of maritime security: order, law and power.
Analysis
Asia-Pacific nations worry as Biden-Xi talk set for APEC | The Washington TImes
South China Sea NewsWire’s own James Borton tackles the challenges that Asia-Pacific nations face as U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in San Fransisco for APEC. Borton also considers the risks, and opportunities, that stand before the U.S. President going into this conversation.
Commentary
Speak its name: Blockade | SeaLight
A country that carries out an illegal, aggressive, unilateral blockade against a smaller country’s outpost–within that country’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zone–deserves to be treated as an outlaw and a pariah on the international stage. That starts with calling it by its name.
Commentary
The U.S. Can Still Avoid War with China over Taiwan | The New York Times
AEI Nonresident Senior Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro’s article discusses the deterioration of relations between China and the United States over the future of Taiwan, the provocations each side has taken in the last few years, and the potential steps the United States can take to avoid the dispute turning into a devastating conflict.
Analysis
The South China Sea talks between ASEAN and China | IISS
The slow-moving South China Sea Code of Conduct process has worked to China’s benefit, particularly as Southeast Asian states have made little progress on resolving important underlying disputes over maritime boundaries.
Commentary
Storm in a Shoal: Philippines and China spar again in the South China Sea | TCSS
Given the deteriorating state of BRP Sierra Madre, the current situation is unsustainable and a new path must soon be forged. President Marcos faces challenging times as he will need to navigate between both Chinese aggression and a vocal domestic cohort that is looking for him to assert Philippine territorial integrity.
Analysis
In Cambodia, a military base as a tool of influence for Beijing | The Conversation
In this featured article, Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin analyzes China’s military base in Ream, Cambodia, how this base came to be, and its strategic implications for China’s South China Sea naval policies. In addition, Blandin explores Cambodia’s perspective in its close relationship with China yet its ability to build ties with other powers.
Analysis
Ease Tensions in the South China Sea by Adopting Cooperative Mechanisms | RANE & SCSNW
The recent altercation in the South China Sea between Chinese vessels and Philippine ships underscores the urgent need for science diplomacy and competition in fisheries management to bring clam to the tense waters, Rodger Baker of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE and James Borton of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins argue.
Commentary
US-Vietnam Relations: From Bitter Enemies to Strategic Partners | Geopolitical Monitor
Vietnam and the United States have finally arrived at a new higher level of bilateral relationship after a protracted and difficult journey through a complicated history of conflict and cooperation. In order to strengthen strategic interests for peace, stability, and prosperity for both sides, and promote a rules-based international order, President Joe Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong reached a historic accord to upgrade the bilateral relationship between the two countries in a two-day visit by President Biden to Hanoi on September 10-11.
Analysis
Artificial islands: Beijing’s risky strategy in the South China Sea | The Conversation
In this featured article, Senior Contributing Researcher Benjamin Blandin analyzes China’s buildup of islands and military assets in the South China Sea. He explores the size and facilities of Chinese-held South China Sea islands, their usefulness to the PLA and Beijing’s overall policy objectives in the region, and their inherent risks to China’s power projection in the event of a full-on conflict.
Analysis
A RAND Research Primer “The Political Geography of the South China Sea Disputes” | Rand
The South China Sea disputes are multifaceted and have significant geopolitical implications. The complex nature of these disputes requires careful analysis and understanding of the political geography, historical context, and legal aspects involved.
Commentary
Where Is Vietnam on the Sino-U.S. Spectrum? | CSIS
Vietnam, like other Southeast Asian countries, does not want to align with either side in the growing competition between China and the United States but instead navigate between the two powers to pursue its own interests. The author argues that Vietnam remains closer to China and will move slowly in building stronger ties with the United States.
Our monthly news aggregator identifies the central articles on news and regional developments. Our team of editors offer concise summaries for easy access to articles, conferences, podcasts, videos and integrated media.
